Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa253…0181 crypto 665 markets active 4h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,696 (+18%) realized +$2,696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%351W / 563L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day173.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -59.8% -63.6% 14% 13% -74.1%
≤30d 914 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 31% -37.6%
≤90d 914 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 31% -37.6%
all 914 -25.7% -32.8% 38% 31% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 31% -37.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 24% -43.6%
15% -45.1% 21% -49.0%
20% -50.5% 18% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses351 / 563
Open positions0
Markets (closed)914 / 665
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day173.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 914 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$11 -111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records