Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa252…0fcf world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 25% +$1
sports 6% $0
politics 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +62.3% +46.8% 42% 17% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +62.3% +46.8% 42% 17% -9.5%
all 25 +30.4% +18.0% 48% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 8% -9.3%
10% +6.7% 4% -18.0%
15% -3.6% 4% -25.9%
20% -13.1% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage464d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $75 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $32 +$4 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 20 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $20 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $20 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $40 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $39 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $39 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $35 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $35 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $36 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 26d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records