Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa24f…2ffe weather 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%102W / 9L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$7
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 95 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 111 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses102 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage121d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $229 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $184 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $181 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 7 Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? Jun 05 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 1? Jun 01 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? May 31 $219 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 30? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 23? May 24 $222 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $213 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 16 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on May 14? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 13 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $226 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $229 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $228 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $204 39h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $24 39h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $228 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $186 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $188 7d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $40 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $184 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $226 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $224 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $180 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $226 10d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $224 12d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $224 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $47 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $181 14d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 7 BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $225 15d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $224 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $225 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 227 history records