Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa24d…17d5 crypto 173 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$109 (+5%) realized +$96 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%98W / 74L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$28
other 10% +$44
sports 2% +$13
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.5% -26.2% 47% 41% -27.9%
≤30d 172 +3.4% -6.4% 57% 46% -6.4%
≤90d 172 +3.4% -6.4% 57% 46% -6.4%
all 172 +3.4% -6.4% 57% 46% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 46% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 38% -15.4%
15% -23.6% 29% -23.5%
20% -31.1% 25% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses98 / 74
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 68¢ 100¢ $29 $42 +$13 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$11 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 25h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 402 history records