Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa248…8704 world 42 markets active 5h ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%18W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$3
politics 7% +$1
other 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -10.0%
all 42 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses18 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage313d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$1 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $67 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $27 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Dec 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $27 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 74¢ $25 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 30h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $35 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records