Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa246…b7e2 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$5
other 14% $0
sports 7% −$4
politics 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -10.1%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage489d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $54 −$5 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 21 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 4? Mar 04 $14 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Pacers Mar 03 $16 −$1 -6%
Predators vs. Bruins Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Green Bay vs. Youngstown State Mar 03 $14 +$2 +15%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $11 +$3 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $29 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $27 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $25 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $23 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $24 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.75 · official $29.75 (match) · 111 history records