Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa246…8e15
crypto · 995 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$299 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$299 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses811 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1015 / 995
History coverage28d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day92.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1015 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$182
7 days−$348
14 days−$241
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $0 −$3 -909%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$11 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $46 +$11 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$240
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $17 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $17 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 100¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $57 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 250 -16.6% -24.5% 72% 21% -15.8%
≤30d 1015 -4.6% -13.7% 80% 23% -11.5%
≤90d 1015 -4.6% -13.7% 80% 23% -11.5%
all 1015 -4.6% -13.7% 80% 23% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 23% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 9% -20.0%
15% -29.5% 4% -27.7%
20% -36.4% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $14.78 (match) · 3500 history records