Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

A2 0xa245…48f7 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$47 (+15%) realized −$7 · open +$54

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip

Net edge+36%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+42.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
≤30d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
≤90d	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%
all	1	+57.0%	+42.0%	100%	100%	+42.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.0%	100%	+42.0%
10%	+28.4%	100%	+28.4%
15%	+16.0%	100%	+16.0%
20%	+4.7%	100%	+4.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +57% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$29 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$304

Realized−$7

Unrealized+$54

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)1 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	100¢	$50	$88	+$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	50¢	$50	$77	+$27 (+53%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse	Brandon Nakashima	71¢	72¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan	Aoyama/Chan	57¢	52¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li	Varvara Panshina	94¢	81¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf	Jun 16	$51	+$29	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5)	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	33¢	$51	1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li	BUY Varvara Panshina	94¢	$50	1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng	BUY Tiana Tian Deng	57¢	$51	2h
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf	BUY Jeffrey John Wolf	63¢	$51	11h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse	BUY Brandon Nakashima	71¢	$50	13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan	BUY Aoyama/Chan	57¢	$51	13h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.38 · official $304.38 (match) · 7 history records