Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa245…bf9e
sports · 1532 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,596 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,432 · open −$168
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,034
Realized−$2,432
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1405 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions82
Markets (closed)1466 / 1532
History coverage37d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 82 History 1466 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$128
14 days−$2,550
30 days−$2,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Jose Ramirez win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No 97¢ 99¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 100¢ 99¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Yes 98¢ 100¢ $212 $215 +$3 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $210 $215 +$5 (+2%)
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? No 98¢ 100¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Tush Push banned for 2026 NFL Season? No 98¢ 98¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brandon Miller win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 100¢ 100¢ $197 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+1%)
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 No 99¢ 90¢ $130 $118 −$12 (-9%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Josh Hart win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brian Ortega be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Yes 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 96¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 86¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 96¢ 56¢ $130 $76 −$54 (-42%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 No 99¢ 66¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Yes 98¢ 100¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+2%)
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 0.5 Yes 99¢ 100¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Yes 99¢ 62¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Max Muncy: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 Jun 14 $171 +$2 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 Jun 14 $100 +$1 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $120 +$3 +2%
1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 118.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 112.5 Jun 14 $26 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $115 +$4 +4%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $320 +$2 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $230 +$3 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $200 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 13 $108 +$1 +1%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5) Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $30 +$1 +3%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $220 +$3 +1%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $200 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $210 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$2,552
other 2% +$8
politics 1% −$84
crypto 1% +$18
tech 1% +$3
world 1% +$6
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 100¢ $250 0m
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 99¢ $100 5m
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 98¢ $43 6m
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 99¢ $9 7m
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY No 99¢ $130 11m
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $100 11m
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 81¢ $5 21m
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 93¢ $5 21m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 23m
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 99¢ $14 23m
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 98¢ $25 24m
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY No 99¢ $25 24m
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 27m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $10 31m
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 98¢ $50 43m
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $100 45m
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 96¢ $15 50m
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 77¢ $5 50m
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $19 53m
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ $100 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Under 97¢ $30 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 93¢ $10 1h
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 109.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 BUY Under 99¢ $25 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-5.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $25 1h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 91¢ $12 1h
1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5) BUY Spurs 99¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -4.0% -13.1% 93% 2% -10.1%
≤30d 1198 -0.8% -10.2% 96% 3% -11.8%
≤90d 1466 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 3% -11.4%
all 1466 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 3% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -19.9%
15% -26.2% 1% -27.6%
20% -33.5% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,034.13 · official $5,033.19 (match) · 3500 history records