Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa23f…7f29 sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,716 (+18%) realized +$1,716 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 54L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$161
14 days+$160
30 days+$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,873
crypto 22% −$10
other 3% +$4
weather 1% −$24
tech 0% −$6
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 54% +0.5%
≤30d 44 +9.7% -0.7% 52% 50% +1.1%
≤90d 75 +13.0% +2.3% 59% 55% +13.8%
all 116 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 47% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 47% +7.8%
10% -18.4% 39% -2.6%
15% -26.3% 33% -12.0%
20% -33.5% 28% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$24 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,716
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 54
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage140d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $5 +$3 +70%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $11 +$9 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $89 +$23 +26%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $6 +$1 +23%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $13 +$3 +23%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $15 +$6 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $97 −$59 -61%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $256 +$17 +7%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $82 +$103 +125%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $189 −$102 -54%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $13 +$2 +20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 +$24 +62%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $154 +$58 +38%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $88 +$127 +146%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50 +$44 +88%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $17 +$22 +129%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $64 +$95 +150%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $34 +$10 +31%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $23 −$23 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $32 −$31 -97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $53 −$52 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Gro Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $1 $0 -18%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $3 +$12 +362%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $9 +$1 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 10 $25 +$5 +22%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$4 +488%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 01 $2 +$2 +100%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Kayla Day Jun 01 $4 +$1 +32%
ITF Bol: Noa Vukadin vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 01 $9 +$6 +75%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Giles Hussey May 30 $6 −$4 -69%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 28 $7 +$9 +124%
Will Kayserispor vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? Apr 28 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Praggnanandhaa R vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? Apr 28 $16 +$15 +97%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? Apr 05 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-11? Apr 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $83 30m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $34 30m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $27 31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $79 31m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 34m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 76¢ $34 44m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $143 45m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $74 46m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 81¢ $13 46m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under $16 47m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under $2 47m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 56¢ $32 47m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $38 47m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 52m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 18¢ $23 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $26 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $55 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $37 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $23 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 51¢ $20 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $19 1h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $63 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $7 1h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $6 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $11 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $12 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $88 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records