Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:32:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa23f…a64e sports 708 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,054 (+4%) realized +$1,056 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%351W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$789
14 days−$569
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$950
other 13% −$5
politics 0% +$30
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -44.6% -49.9% 25% 25% -30.2%
≤30d 96 -23.5% -30.8% 34% 34% -19.1%
≤90d 436 -31.1% -37.7% 34% 34% -27.8%
all 707 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 49% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% -6.2%
10% -16.0% 49% -15.2%
15% -24.1% 48% -23.4%
20% -31.5% 47% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$1,056
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses351 / 356
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)707 / 708
History coverage594d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $26 +$46 +172%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $72 −$45 -63%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $70 +$51 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 +$29 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $68 −$67 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $71 +$54 +77%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $37 −$36 -99%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: FC Andorra (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: Both Teams to Scor Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $31 +$7 +22%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $127 −$127 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $41 −$36 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5) Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $26 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $27 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $72 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $70 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 32¢ $8 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $78 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $49 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $68 29h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $8 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $125 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $71 31h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $37 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $127 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 36¢ $20 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 12¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 8¢ $6 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $78 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $40 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $23 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $19 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $86 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.39 · official $48.39 (match) · 2051 history records