Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa23c…5c54 sports 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-17%) realized −$63 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$28
sports 38% −$24
crypto 17% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -46.7%
≤30d 18 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -46.7%
≤90d 18 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -46.7%
all 18 -59.0% -62.9% 17% 17% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.9% 17% -46.7%
10% -66.5% 17% -51.8%
15% -69.7% 17% -56.5%
20% -72.7% 17% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $104 +$12 (+12%)
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $9 +$12 +128%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$9 -23%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $24 +$14 +58%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up $5 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 43¢ $9 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $37 3d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $24 3d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 49¢ $24 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 12¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports $1 3d
Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.54 · official $104.54 (match) · 41 history records