Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
A2 0xa23b…a311 politics 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$93 (-4%) realized −$92 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$86
world 13% −$7
other 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -7.2% -16.0% 0% 0% -17.9%
all 3 -4.8% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -13.8%
10% -22.1% 0% -22.1%
15% -29.6% 0% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$31 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage95d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 79¢ 78¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $277 −$7 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 25 $727 −$86 -12%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $946 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.95 · official $211.95 (match) · 14 history records