Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa239…bf85 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$1
other 32% $0
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 60% 0% -9.0%
all 15 +1.4% -8.2% 80% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×42.9 per $1 lost it wins $42.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage454d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 10 $7 $0 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 29h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $21 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $5 24d
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? BUY No 98¢ $1 368d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 382d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $1 405d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? BUY No 93¢ $1 419d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C SELL No 96¢ $12 433d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C BUY No 97¢ $12 433d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL No 23¢ $2 434d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio SELL No 22¢ $5 434d
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio BUY No 22¢ $7 435d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 436d
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 437d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $8 437d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $1 438d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $7 438d
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? SELL No 98¢ $12 449d
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? BUY No 98¢ $12 451d
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend? SELL No 100¢ $11 452d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.40 · official $32.20 (match) · 36 history records