Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:09:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa236…4cbb sports 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+3%) realized +$221 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate76%78W / 25L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day64.4pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$133
14 days+$62
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$43
other 18% +$43
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 20% -5.0%
≤30d 103 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 20% -6.6%
≤90d 103 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 20% -6.6%
all 103 -0.2% -9.7% 76% 20% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 20% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -15.6%
15% -26.2% 4% -23.7%
20% -33.4% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$221
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses78 / 25
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 107
History coverage22d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day64.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 86¢ 100¢ $38 $44 +$6 (+17%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 97¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $514 +$20 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$7 -35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $243 +$10 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $93 +$8 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $145 +$10 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $434 +$40 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $80 +$16 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $72 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$8 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$14 -48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $85 +$2 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 +$13 +22%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$7 -18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $33 +$2 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$29 +193%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $63 −$8 -13%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +12%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $85 −$3 -4%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $35 +$4 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $40 $0 +1%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $29 +$3 +11%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $25 $0 +2%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $5 −$1 -23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $63 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 6m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 6m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 10m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 10m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $10 10m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 3¢ $0 10m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $10 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $10 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $5 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $1 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 12m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $5 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $3 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $20 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $10 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $10 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 13m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $20 14m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 14m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $10 14m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 29¢ $10 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.60 · official $115.60 (match) · 1485 history records