Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa235…b20e other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% $0
sports 11% −$2
world 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.4% -41.6% 28% 28% -20.4%
≤30d 18 -35.4% -41.6% 28% 28% -20.4%
≤90d 18 -35.4% -41.6% 28% 28% -20.4%
all 18 -35.4% -41.6% 28% 28% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 28% -20.4%
10% -47.2% 28% -28.0%
15% -52.3% 28% -35.0%
20% -56.9% 17% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)18 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$17 +408%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ $2 12m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 0¢ $2 12m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 43h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 43h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.75 · official $86.76 (match) · 62 history records