Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A2
0xa235…2472
weather · 1337 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$42 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$19 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,484
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1107 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)1276 / 1337
History coverage56d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 61 History 1276 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$25
14 days−$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $131 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 97¢ 98¢ $130 $132 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 98¢ 97¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? No 98¢ 94¢ $82 $79 −$4 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $104 +$12 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $88 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $105 −$11 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% −$13
other 1% +$26
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 16m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $41 29m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $40 31m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $2 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $9 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $9 39m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $17 40m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $38 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 765 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1276 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 3% -9.4%
all 1276 -0.8% -10.3% 87% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 3% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,484.27 · official $2,483.53 (match) · 3500 history records