Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A2 0xa234…f7eb tech 687 markets active 0h ago coverage 192d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 191d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,734 (+4%) realized +$8,834 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate88%588W / 83L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$3,297
14 days+$3,309
30 days+$3,494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 58% +$5,902
other 19% +$1,024
weather 15% +$700
sports 3% +$109
culture 2% +$774
finance 1% +$129
world 1% −$13
crypto 1% −$6
politics 0% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +18.2% +6.9% 89% 26% +12.8%
≤30d 91 +8.5% -1.8% 89% 13% +1.8%
≤90d 362 +2.0% -7.7% 90% 10% -6.2%
all 671 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 13% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 13% -6.3%
10% -17.4% 8% -15.3%
15% -25.4% 6% -23.5%
20% -32.7% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$65 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$2,909
Realized+$8,834
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses588 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)671 / 687
History coverage192d ⚠
Avg bet$360
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $974 $996 +$22 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $288 $296 +$8 (+3%)
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 96¢ 97¢ $254 $255 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tubi: Movies & Live TV be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 97¢ 97¢ $240 $240 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tubi: Movies & Live TV be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $228 $231 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $196 $200 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? No 95¢ 99¢ $128 $134 +$5 (+4%)
Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 25¢ 59¢ $51 $121 +$70 (+136%)
Will FIFA World Cup 2026 be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 98¢ 60¢ $194 $118 −$76 (-39%)
Will FOX One: Live News, Sports, TV be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 96¢ 60¢ $157 $98 −$59 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 51¢ 91¢ $31 $56 +$25 (+80%)
Will Love Island USA be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 97¢ 57¢ $92 $54 −$38 (-41%)
Will FOX One: Live News, Sports, TV be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 97¢ 60¢ $72 $44 −$27 (-38%)
Will Kalshi: Trade the Cup be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 94¢ 55¢ $58 $34 −$25 (-42%)
Will Paramount+ be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 95¢ 85¢ $35 $32 −$4 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Yes 42¢ 7¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$64 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $294 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $294 +$260 +89%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 15 $3,316 +$26 +1%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15 Jun 15 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 15 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 15 $287 +$71 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1,955 +$90 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,371 +$53 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $515 +$45 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $799 +$16 +2%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12 Jun 12 $156 +$8 +5%
Will Сириус be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $123 +$3 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $60 +$29 +48%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $1,946 +$2,603 +134%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $84 +$3 +4%
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 12 $275 +$4 +2%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12 Jun 12 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Sto Jun 12 $107 +$2 +2%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 09 $102 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $165 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $278 +$2 +1%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 05 $48 +$3 +5%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $121 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $62 +$14 +22%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $1,019 +$31 +3%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $1,406 −$7 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 26? Jun 01 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV Jun 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 01 $24 +$76 +322%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Instants, an Instagram app be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Sto May 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $218 −$4 -2%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App May 30 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App May 30 $74 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $44 30m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $16 36m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $48 39m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 54m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $77 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,909.34 · official $2,907.27 (match) · 3500 history records