Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa232…eca0 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
other 28% −$5
politics 16% −$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 5% +$3
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 6% -9.1%
all 48 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage322d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 +$9 +26%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $179 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $68 −$6 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $67 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $38 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $42 −$4 -10%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August? Sep 02 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $3 $0 -12%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $74 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 440–454 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 06 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 06 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $68 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $55 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $58 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $66 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $66 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $57 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $38 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $32 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.71 · official $67.71 (match) · 171 history records