Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa232…9f90 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-15%) realized −$25 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$28
sports 35% −$14
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +40.0% +26.7% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤30d 16 +40.0% +26.7% 50% 50% -26.1%
≤90d 16 +40.0% +26.7% 50% 50% -26.1%
all 16 +40.0% +26.7% 50% 50% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 50% -26.1%
10% +14.5% 44% -33.2%
15% +3.5% 44% -39.6%
20% -6.7% 38% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +204%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$8 +214%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$34 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$25 +442%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $32 +$7 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$7 +94%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$6 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 27h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 28h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 29h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 42 history records