Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa22d…0ac3 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%26W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$14
14 days−$21
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$22
other 9% −$8
world 8% +$1
politics 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +33.6% +20.9% 30% 27% -11.2%
≤30d 71 +13.9% +3.1% 37% 31% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +13.9% +3.1% 37% 31% -9.5%
all 71 +13.9% +3.1% 37% 31% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 31% -9.5%
10% -6.8% 24% -18.2%
15% -15.8% 20% -26.1%
20% -24.1% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses26 / 45
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage24d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 50¢ 100¢ $26 $52 +$26 (+98%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 18¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Clara Tauson 45¢ 44¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Suzan Lamens 48¢ 42¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Deborah Chiesa 44¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 75¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1668%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $8 +$4 +48%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $9 −$4 -46%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $4 −$2 -46%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $13 $0 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$19 -59%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $8 −$5 -61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$25 +307%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$5 -58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 −$2 -15%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -34%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $13 +$3 +22%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 −$4 -55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $8 −$1 -13%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $16 +$12 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$3 +36%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $8 −$1 -14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $8 −$1 -11%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $32 −$4 -14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $8 −$1 -16%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 08 $8 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$13 +62%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$12 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$2 -25%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $10 +$5 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 −$2 -19%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$28 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $25 53m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Noemi Basiletti 21¢ $15 54m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti SELL Noemi Basiletti 28¢ $1 55m
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 20¢ $16 56m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 71¢ $16 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 65¢ $15 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 76¢ $15 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 75¢ $15 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Deborah Chiesa 33¢ $15 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 44¢ $21 1h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 46¢ $17 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $8 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang SELL Madison Keys 78¢ $8 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $8 3h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Suzan Lamens 48¢ $22 3h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 60¢ $22 3h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 45¢ $22 4h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 44¢ $23 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $41 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe SELL Flavio Cobolli 10¢ $5 20h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $9 20h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Himeno Sakatsume 16¢ $2 20h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 28¢ $4 20h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 26¢ $6 22h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 33¢ $8 22h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.08 · official $157.46 (match) · 199 history records