Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa22d…6d63 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$50 (+19%) realized +$46 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$80
world 12% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +44.1% +30.4% 62% 62% +16.3%
≤30d 8 +44.1% +30.4% 62% 62% +16.3%
≤90d 8 +44.1% +30.4% 62% 62% +16.3%
all 8 +44.1% +30.4% 62% 62% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 62% +16.3%
10% +17.9% 62% +5.2%
15% +6.5% 62% -5.0%
20% -3.9% 50% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 36¢ 40¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 20¢ 20¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$34 +226%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 34¢ $10 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $31 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $20 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 20¢ $9 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $20 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $15 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $31 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $15 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.59 · official $102.59 (match) · 18 history records