Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A2 0xa227…97a5 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+16%) realized +$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$7
sports 12% +$13
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 67% +12.1%
≤30d 12 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 67% +12.1%
≤90d 12 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 67% +12.1%
all 12 +20.9% +9.4% 67% 67% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 67% +12.1%
10% -1.1% 67% +1.4%
15% -10.6% 58% -8.4%
20% -19.4% 50% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$14 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $4 +$7 +155%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 47m
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 50m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $11 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 34h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.61 · official $38.61 (match) · 33 history records