Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa226…bec6 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$794 (-11%) realized −$936 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%69W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$24
14 days−$457
30 days−$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$904
crypto 6% −$92
other 3% +$47
world 1% +$30
finance 0% +$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -32.1% -38.6% 29% 29% -57.2%
≤30d 161 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 37% -22.0%
≤90d 161 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 37% -22.0%
all 161 -10.7% -19.2% 43% 37% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 37% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 27% -29.5%
15% -34.0% 20% -36.3%
20% -40.5% 14% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$936
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses69 / 92
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions16
Markets (closed)161 / 177
History coverage24d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 72¢ 86¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 70¢ 85¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 76¢ $10 $24 +$13 (+128%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+16%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+191%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $59 −$26 -44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $10 +$72 +718%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $30 +$7 +22%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$1 -13%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Somerset Jun 05 $9 −$6 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $23 +$8 +36%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $20 +$11 +56%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $20 +$25 +124%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $10 +$2 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $20 −$6 -30%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $290 −$51 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $400 −$294 -74%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $20 −$3 -13%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $86 −$53 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $5 +$7 +158%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 03 $5 +$2 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $30 +$9 +29%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $5 +$6 +119%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $391 −$8 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Dellien vs Schoenhaus Jun 02 $9 +$8 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $172 +$45 +26%
Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 02 $20 −$5 -27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $21 +$34 +159%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $127 −$9 -7%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $270 +$89 +33%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $10 +$6 +64%
Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara Jun 01 $125 −$119 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $46 −$21 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $256 −$6 -2%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 01 $10 −$3 -26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $50 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30m
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 10¢ $10 43m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 1¢ $0 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 9h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 13h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 49¢ $10 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 67¢ $0 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.99 · official $210.99 (match) · 800 history records