Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A2 0xa225…b903 other 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22,138 (-16%) realized −$22,130 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%65W / 103L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$292
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$7,824
other 38% −$14,648
politics 7% −$2,925
culture 0% +$3,144
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +70.1% +53.9% 60% 60% +33.3%
≤30d 6 +41.8% +28.3% 50% 50% +11.1%
≤90d 6 +41.8% +28.3% 50% 50% +11.1%
all 168 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 33% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 33% -24.8%
10% -21.0% 26% -32.0%
15% -28.7% 18% -38.5%
20% -35.7% 14% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$715) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$409 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$22,130
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses65 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)168 / 172
History coverage601d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 21¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-44%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $82 +$14 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $146 −$65 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$82 +134%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $110 +$273 +249%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $219 −$12 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils Dec 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Dec 16 $10 $0 +5%
Dolphins vs. Steelers Dec 16 $98 +$55 +56%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $29 −$13 -44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $110 −$85 -78%
Will Cesena FC win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $5,007 −$5,007 -100%
Will Modena FC 2018 vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? Dec 08 $200 −$183 -91%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 08 $4,500 +$626 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Dec 08 $9,600 −$743 -8%
Penguins vs. Stars Dec 08 $291 +$16 +6%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 08 $5,913 −$467 -8%
Lakers vs. 76ers Dec 08 $313 $0 -0%
Will Sønderjyske Fodbold win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $99 +$38 +39%
Broncos vs. Raiders Dec 07 $5,600 −$3 -0%
Celtics vs. Raptors Dec 07 $8,700 −$3,111 -36%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $49 +$50 +102%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $43 +$6 +15%
Valorant: T1 vs Fnatic (BO5) Dec 07 $34 +$9 +27%
Pelicans vs. Nets Dec 07 $26 +$8 +32%
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Wyoming Cowboys Dec 06 $46 −$21 -46%
Will Athletic Club vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Dec 06 $229 −$182 -80%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats Dec 06 $188 +$41 +22%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $220 −$41 -18%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $230 −$230 -100%
Troy vs. James Madison Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-12-05? Dec 05 $500 +$434 +87%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 05 $2,330 −$339 -14%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $1,966 −$719 -37%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 04 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $694 −$176 -25%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $134 +$7 +5%
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) Dec 03 $496 −$308 -62%
Will US Lecce win on 2025-11-30? Dec 03 $505 +$83 +16%
Knicks vs. Celtics Dec 03 $313 +$193 +62%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $346 −$33 -10%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Dec 03 $560 −$40 -7%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 03 $128 +$34 +27%
Wizards vs. 76ers Dec 03 $1,006 −$280 -28%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $503 +$208 +41%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $211 +$68 +32%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $217 −$5 -2%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $303 −$58 -19%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $309 −$5 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $96 25m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $96 35m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $82 47m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $82 48m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $146 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 38h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $383 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $110 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $109 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $116 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $97 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 9d
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Lipscomb Bisons 2¢ $144 191d
Lipscomb Bisons vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY Lipscomb Bisons 2¢ $20 191d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $10 191d
Dolphins vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 64¢ $98 192d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 192d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 192d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 192d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 192d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 192d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $110 192d
Will Cesena FC win on 2025-12-08? BUY Yes 44¢ $5,007 199d
Will Modena FC 2018 vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 199d
Will Modena FC 2018 vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $200 199d
Warriors vs. Bulls SELL Warriors 99¢ $5,126 199d
Warriors vs. Bulls BUY Warriors 87¢ $4,500 199d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies SELL Grizzlies 92¢ $4,559 199d
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 93¢ $4,600 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.00 · official $107.34 (match) · 689 history records