Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa224…3e32 politics 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,575 (+1%) realized +$1,573 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,279per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$142
politics 43% −$65
sports 5% +$1,762
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 63 +2.5% -7.3% 8% 3% -7.9%
all 98 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 9% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 9% -8.4%
10% -18.2% 6% -17.2%
15% -26.1% 4% -25.2%
20% -33.4% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,783) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$5 · ×31.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$1,573
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage115d
Avg bet$1,279
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $698 $700 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,783 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 20 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $2,741 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $6,015 −$6 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,699 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $415 +$2 +1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $852 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,079 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,848 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $987 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,340 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $487 +$2 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,442 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $439 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,192 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,518 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $2,790 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,816 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,733 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,448 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,384 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,664 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,460 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,468 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,374 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,473 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,375 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $355 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $356 5h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 23h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 26h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $344 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $344 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $542 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $542 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $475 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $475 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $273 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $698 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $649 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $852 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $863 13d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $998 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $999 20d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $713 20d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $986 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.43 · official $700.43 (match) · 319 history records