Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa224…af1a world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 19% $0
politics 11% +$1
sports 8% +$2
crypto 5% −$2
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.4%
all 43 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage481d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $97 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 +$2 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 27 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 16 $19 +$2 +13%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $21 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Georgia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 11 $21 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $21 $0 +1%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 05 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $49 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $49 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $49 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $47 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $47 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $47 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $5 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $39 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $5 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.90 · official $3.90 (match) · 135 history records