Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa224…e776 crypto 1221 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%950W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$45
14 days−$62
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 80% -12.3%
≤30d 733 +2.1% -7.6% 80% 80% -10.4%
≤90d 1221 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 78% -9.9%
all 1221 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 78% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 78% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 62% -18.5%
15% -23.8% 22% -26.4%
20% -31.3% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses950 / 271
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1221 / 1221
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1221 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records