Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A2 0xa220…10e0 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-14%) realized −$62 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$86
other 13% −$1
sports 4% +$5
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.1% -21.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
≤30d 67 -13.1% -21.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
≤90d 67 -13.1% -21.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
all 67 -13.1% -21.3% 37% 37% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 37% -25.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 33% -32.8%
15% -35.7% 27% -39.2%
20% -42.0% 24% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$14 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +252%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $14 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.66 · official $4.66 (match) · 131 history records