Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A2 0xa21d…f351 other 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,242 (+4%) realized +$2,487 · open +$755
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%52W / 37L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10,816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$437
14 days−$4,794
30 days−$3,387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$849
finance 22% +$2,022
other 11% +$440
sports 2% +$336
crypto 1% −$527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +33.3% +20.6% 73% 61% +6.8%
≤30d 47 +19.7% +8.3% 64% 49% -17.1%
≤90d 82 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 40% -6.0%
all 89 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 39% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 39% -6.9%
10% -18.4% 28% -15.8%
15% -26.3% 19% -24.0%
20% -33.5% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$233 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$10,816
Realized+$2,487
Unrealized+$755
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses52 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions11
Markets (closed)89 / 100
History coverage110d
Avg bet$924
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $3,703 $3,870 +$167 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 81¢ 100¢ $1,652 $2,031 +$378 (+23%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $1,269 $1,485 +$216 (+17%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $800 $901 +$101 (+13%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 63¢ $665 $630 −$35 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 88¢ 100¢ $440 $498 +$58 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $332 $324 −$8 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $255 −$45 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $158 −$142 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $162 +$39 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $60 +$4 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $59 −$1 -1%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$8 +80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $23 −$3 -12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $215 +$82 +38%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$17 +16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $302 +$50 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $213 +$87 +41%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $156 −$5 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$63 +21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +30%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +63%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$15 +29%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +41%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 +$2 +31%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 +$7 +54%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$7 -47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$15 -8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +85%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +190%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 $0 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $18 +$24 +131%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $353 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$38 +374%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $200 +$12 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $17,214 −$5,570 -32%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $1,000 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $308 −$11 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $202 −$4 -2%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $202 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $4,940 +$315 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,239 +$804 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 01 $8,746 +$603 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,513 +$1,039 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 84¢ $202 7m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $162 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $603 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $64 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $60 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $58 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 38¢ $19 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $20 24h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $58 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 51¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $23 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $162 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $39 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $33 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 88¢ $117 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,816.03 · official $10,813.71 (match) · 633 history records