Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa21b…fb32 crypto 943 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%412W / 531L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 174 -4.6% -13.7% 37% 37% -8.4%
≤30d 248 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 39% -13.5%
≤90d 521 -6.2% -15.2% 39% 39% -13.5%
all 943 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -10.7%
10% -19.7% 43% -19.2%
15% -27.4% 43% -27.0%
20% -34.5% 41% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$30 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses412 / 531
Open positions0
Markets (closed)943 / 943
History coverage182d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 943 Trades
no open positions (491 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$20 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$33 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$17 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$39 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$43 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $29 +$26 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$49 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$46 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$49 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$31 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$41 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$21 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$26 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $23 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $12 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2449 history records