Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa216…b201 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-20%) realized −$68 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$63
sports 38% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.0% -41.2% 36% 27% -30.8%
≤30d 11 -35.0% -41.2% 36% 27% -30.8%
≤90d 11 -35.0% -41.2% 36% 27% -30.8%
all 11 -35.0% -41.2% 36% 27% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.2% 27% -30.8%
10% -46.8% 27% -37.4%
15% -51.9% 27% -43.4%
20% -56.7% 18% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Ajla Tomljanovic 59¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $56 −$40 -71%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +48%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $38 +$31 +81%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $10 −$3 -25%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $10 −$6 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$9 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 39¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Barbora Krejcikova 69¢ $20 13h
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5) SELL Fery 1¢ $0 13h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Xinyu Wang 100¢ $69 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $16 16h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 62¢ $23 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova BUY Anastasia Zakharova 63¢ $10 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 18¢ $4 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Aleksandar Vukic 41¢ $10 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 66¢ $10 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 59¢ $10 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 59¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Xinyu Wang 46¢ $15 24h
Set Handicap: Fery (-1.5) vs Burruchaga (+1.5) BUY Fery 54¢ $15 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $98 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.94 · official $23.94 (match) · 25 history records