Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa214…ceef sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$243 (+68%) realized +$244 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +76% what you keep after slip
Net edge+76%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+76.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +94.5% +76.0% 100% 100% +75.9%
≤30d 3 +94.5% +76.0% 100% 100% +75.9%
≤90d 3 +94.5% +76.0% 100% 100% +75.9%
all 3 +94.5% +76.0% 100% 100% +75.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +76.0% 100% +75.9%
10% +59.1% 100% +59.1%
15% +43.8% 100% +43.7%
20% +29.7% 100% +29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +94% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +94% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $81 +$79 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $72 +$67 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $81 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.00 (match) · 7 history records