Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa212…459f sports 151 markets active 7d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$4
politics 26% −$5
other 15% $0
world 8% $0
economics 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
finance 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage146d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $216 −$1 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $191 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $36 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $52 −$7 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 08 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $211 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $41 $0 +1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Mar 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $157 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $141 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $197 −$1 -1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 28 $61 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 6d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 7d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $32 17d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 17d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 30d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $40 32d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 96d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 96d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 98¢ $35 96d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 98¢ $35 97d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 97d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $5 97d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $41 97d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $43 97d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $43 97d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $41 97d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $41 97d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $45 97d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 98¢ $45 98d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $38 98d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $38 98d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $33 98d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $33 98d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 98d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 98d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 98d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 98d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 98d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 99d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $41 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 689 history records