Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa212…2c8a crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$659 (-7%) realized −$222 · open −$437
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days−$328
14 days−$328
30 days−$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$952
other 8% −$337
sports 3% −$300
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -46.3% -51.4% 29% 29% -64.1%
≤30d 16 -76.5% -78.7% 12% 12% -82.8%
≤90d 71 -0.3% -9.8% 27% 27% -24.6%
all 74 -4.3% -13.4% 26% 26% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 26% -27.6%
10% -21.7% 24% -34.5%
15% -29.3% 24% -40.9%
20% -36.2% 24% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$97 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$437
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage115d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $500 $250 −$250 (-50%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $200 $112 −$87 (-44%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $209 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $219 −$110 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $114 +$81 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 28 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $222 +$60 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $219 −$85 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $116 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $104 +$137 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 28 $21 +$705 +3298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $42 +$57 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 13 $350 +$51 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 13 $207 −$64 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 28 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 28 $104 +$153 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $115 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $160 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $249 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $199 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.63 · official $362.63 (match) · 178 history records