Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa211…c0e1 crypto 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%180W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$69
other 2% −$49
sports 1% +$2
world 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -7.0% -15.9% 67% 21% -7.8%
≤30d 82 -7.0% -15.9% 67% 21% -7.8%
≤90d 82 -7.0% -15.9% 67% 21% -7.8%
all 279 -5.1% -14.2% 65% 33% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% -8.5%
10% -22.4% 12% -17.2%
15% -29.9% 6% -25.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses180 / 99
Open positions12
Markets (closed)279 / 291
History coverage207d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET Up 40¢ 100¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+148%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+124%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $242 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $285 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $180 +$6 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $95 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $202 −$72 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $183 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $141 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $117 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $116 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $47 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $91 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $43 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $147 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $23 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $14 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.25 · official $67.27 (match) · 1351 history records