Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A2 0xa20d…76bc crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$405 (+10%) realized +$421 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate68%61W / 29L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$188
other 46% −$20
sports 7% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +22.8% +11.1% 68% 62% +2.9%
≤30d 90 +22.8% +11.1% 68% 62% +2.9%
≤90d 90 +22.8% +11.1% 68% 62% +2.9%
all 90 +22.8% +11.1% 68% 62% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 62% +2.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 50% -6.9%
15% -9.3% 36% -15.9%
20% -18.1% 22% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses61 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions17
Markets (closed)90 / 108
History coverage5d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-47%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$4 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $403 +$159 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -82%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$6 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$15 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$51 +250%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$5 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$5 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$8 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$88 +477%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$10 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $19 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $563 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $37 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $41 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $28 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $25 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.39 · official $751.40 (match) · 240 history records