Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:30:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa205…d809 sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$615 (-19%) realized −$526 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$436
7 days+$436
14 days+$432
30 days+$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$451
crypto 5% +$20
other 2% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +101.5% +82.4% 100% 100% +74.9%
≤30d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 57% 57% +18.8%
≤90d 52 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 46% -22.9%
all 52 -17.1% -25.0% 48% 46% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 46% -22.9%
10% -32.1% 35% -30.3%
15% -38.7% 29% -37.0%
20% -44.7% 27% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$46 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$526
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage78d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucrezia Stefanini Katarzyna Kawa 62¢ 66¢ $200 $210 +$10 (+5%)
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Emma Navarro 61¢ 72¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens Suzan Lamens 44¢ 10¢ $150 $32 −$118 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina Jun 24 $152 +$98 +64%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios Jun 24 $102 +$103 +102%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 24 $122 +$127 +105%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $64 +$73 +114%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $29 +$35 +123%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $4 +$4 +88%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $13 −$12 -98%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $25 −$24 -98%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $199 −$196 -98%
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Ana Candiotto Jun 05 $114 +$85 +74%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Karolina Muchova May 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $13 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $17 −$17 -98%
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter May 13 $82 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 12 $2 $0 +28%
Paris: Clara Burel vs Tamara Korpatsch May 12 $2 −$1 -29%
Paris: Shuai Zhang vs Himeno Sakatsume May 12 $22 −$20 -90%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenko May 12 $19 +$3 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic May 10 $50 +$5 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo May 10 $91 −$89 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider May 10 $54 +$36 +67%
Will Atlanta United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 09 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 09 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 09 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $60 −$57 -95%
Istanbul: Alice Tubello vs Polina Kudermetova May 08 $48 +$12 +24%
Wuxi: Mark Lajal vs Dane Sweeny May 08 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 05 $9 −$9 -95%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $352 −$350 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $252 +$105 +41%
Mauthausen: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich Apr 28 $32 −$31 -98%
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Jaime Faria vs Lloyd Harris Apr 21 $64 −$63 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Tyra Caterina Grant Apr 21 $27 +$37 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 21 $17 +$10 +55%
Rome: Nerman Fatic vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Apr 21 $24 −$7 -27%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Tamara Korpatsch Apr 21 $31 −$6 -20%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Elvina Kalieva Apr 21 $66 −$35 -52%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Martin Damm Apr 21 $25 +$41 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Barcelona Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Nuno Borges Apr 17 $25 −$22 -89%
BMW Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Denis Shapovalov Apr 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Gabriela Ruse vs Dayana Yastremska Apr 08 $73 −$72 -99%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jiri Lehecka vs Alejandro Tabilo Apr 08 $45 +$28 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Katarzyna Kawa 62¢ $202 0m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $51 10m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina SELL Hugo Gaston 100¢ $250 14m
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 61¢ $101 16m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 51¢ $51 34m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 43¢ $51 39m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios SELL Tomas Barrios 100¢ $205 41m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Paul Jubb vs Tomas Barrios BUY Tomas Barrios 49¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Federico Cina BUY Hugo Gaston 60¢ $152 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $249 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 26¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 58¢ $101 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $137 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $64 4h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 100¢ $64 4h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 44¢ $29 5h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $8 8d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 99¢ $8 8d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $4 8d
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Katie Volynets 42¢ $13 15d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 27¢ $25 16d
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu BUY Yuta Shimizu 56¢ $3 18d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller SELL Marvin Moeller $3 18d
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller BUY Marvin Moeller 66¢ $199 18d
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Ana Candiotto SELL Camila Romero 100¢ $199 18d
ITF Brasilia: Camila Romero vs Ana Candiotto BUY Camila Romero 57¢ $114 19d
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 50¢ $14 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 94¢ $14 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 84¢ $13 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong BUY Stan Wawrinka 47¢ $17 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.10 · official $324.09 · 97 history records