Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa204…96f6 crypto 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,378 (-8%) realized −$4,329 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%107W / 224L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$6,585
sports 6% +$1,529
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -46.1% -51.3% 27% 25% -68.4%
≤30d 187 -47.3% -52.4% 26% 24% -65.4%
≤90d 306 -41.3% -46.9% 31% 27% -49.7%
all 331 -39.4% -45.2% 32% 29% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 29% -46.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 26% -52.0%
15% -55.2% 21% -56.6%
20% -59.6% 13% -60.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$226 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$4,329
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses107 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)331 / 271
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$211
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Down 27¢ 52¢ $81 $154 +$74 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,415 −$1,415 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $842 −$842 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2,317 −$2,317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $995 −$995 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $541 −$541 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,152 −$1,741 -151%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2,212 −$2,212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $694 −$694 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,466 −$1,466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 10? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $787 −$787 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 10? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $706 −$706 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,326 −$1,326 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,305 −$1,305 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $331 −$331 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $937 −$937 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $224 −$224 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $644 −$644 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 11? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $85 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $143 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $84 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $80 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $107 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $46 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $203 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $89 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $71 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.86 · official $148.86 · 3500 history records