Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A2 0xa203…11bc sports 460 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,238 (+1%) realized +$8,009 · open +$229
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%427W / 32L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3,092per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 126 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 459 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 7% -9.3%
all 459 -1.5% -10.9% 93% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 7% -9.3%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,566) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$94 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2,998
Realized+$8,009
Unrealized+$229
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses427 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions1
Markets (closed)459 / 460
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$3,092
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 92¢ 100¢ $2,770 $2,998 +$229 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $13,986 +$14 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $17,982 +$18 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,840 +$160 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13,986 +$14 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $588 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $446 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $137 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $472 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,979 +$21 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $187 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $517 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,750 +$9 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,669 +$331 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $792 +$8 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,972 +$28 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $81 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $4,961 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $951 +$49 +5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,916 +$19 +1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $990 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,088 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $5,441 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5,795 +$6 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 99¢ $1,981 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $795 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $406 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $25 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $28 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $539 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $605 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $83 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $234 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $949 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $44 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $54 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $546 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $156 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $156 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $156 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $62 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $500 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $157 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $40 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $2 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $318 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $568 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 100¢ $100 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,998.50 · official $2,998.50 (match) · 3500 history records