Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa203…7e1a crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$142 (+13%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$146
politics 2% −$2
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 35% +4.0%
≤30d 23 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 35% +4.0%
≤90d 23 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 35% +4.0%
all 23 +3.0% -6.8% 52% 35% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 35% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 30% -6.0%
15% -23.8% 26% -15.1%
20% -31.3% 26% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$18 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $77 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$86 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$51 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $77 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $78 +$45 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$12 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 23 $25 −$2 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$24 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $37 −$23 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $158 −$37 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$95 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$7 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $28 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $164 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records