Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A2 0xa202…9b12 crypto 645 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,089 (-4%) realized −$2,089 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%188W / 457L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 124d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4,702
other 14% −$1,398
world 2% −$213
sports 1% +$44
politics 1% −$168
economics 0% −$18
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +37.3% +24.3% 83% 74% +13.1%
≤30d 112 -13.6% -21.9% 40% 37% -28.5%
≤90d 402 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 30% -21.3%
all 645 -25.1% -32.2% 29% 27% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 27% -21.7%
10% -38.7% 25% -29.2%
15% -44.6% 23% -36.0%
20% -50.1% 21% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$46 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses188 / 457
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)645 / 645
History coverage124d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 645 Trades
no open positions (334 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$24 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$31 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$54 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$37 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$51 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $224 −$217 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $340 +$167 +49%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $257 +$83 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $132 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $78 +$57 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$22 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +37%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -91%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -67%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 06 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $44 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -24%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -32%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 05 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $128 −$24 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $70 +$39 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $50 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 01 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$13 +134%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 01 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $37 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $107 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $99 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2468 history records