Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1fa…0770 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 19% −$12
finance 6% $0
politics 5% +$19
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 48 +17.7% +6.5% 44% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 2% -8.8%
10% -3.7% 2% -17.6%
15% -13.0% 2% -25.5%
20% -21.6% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage443d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $1 $0 -13%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $2 +$19 +957%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 20 $1 $0 -11%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $6 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 06 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 01 $21 −$10 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $37 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $37 8h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $33 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $7 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $27 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 93¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $36 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 25d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $33 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $33 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records