Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A1
0xa1f8…e696
crypto · 98 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$260 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$188 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$188
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses42 / 56
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage53d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$143
14 days+$143
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 17¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $80 +$143 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $30 −$15 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 21 $72 +$25 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 21 $20 +$18 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 21 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 21 $63 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 21 $21 +$31 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 21 $21 +$23 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 21 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 21 $18 +$31 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 21 $31 +$30 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 21 $31 +$54 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 20 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 20 $55 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $21 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 20 $31 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $35 +$33 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 20 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 20 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $40 +$136 +341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 20 $67 −$16 -24%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic May 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 20 $388 −$260 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$159
crypto 31% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $13 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 10¢ $13 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $210 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $15 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $19 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $15 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 7¢ $12 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 11¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $34 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $34 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $38 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 21¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $20 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $52 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $33 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +179.0% +152.4% 100% 100% +152.4%
≤30d 72 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 40% -29.0%
≤90d 98 +6.2% -3.9% 43% 42% -13.7%
all 98 +6.2% -3.9% 43% 42% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 42% -13.7%
10% -13.1% 42% -22.0%
15% -21.5% 38% -29.5%
20% -29.2% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 290 history records