Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f8…420c world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,556 (-12%) realized +$163 · open −$1,719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,588now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$188
14 days−$188
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$2,152
world 43% +$493
politics 5% −$45
sports 4% −$247
culture 3% −$208
tech 1% +$142
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 63 -17.7% -25.5% 46% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 25% -12.9%
10% -32.6% 22% -21.2%
15% -39.2% 14% -28.8%
20% -45.1% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -104% too few recent
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$42 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$2,588
Realized+$163
Unrealized−$1,719
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage174d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $4,233 $2,525 −$1,709 (-40%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $261 −$69 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $259 −$257 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 23 $200 +$40 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 23 $290 −$13 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 23 $741 −$48 -6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 23 $209 +$21 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 21 $514 +$149 +29%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Mar 19 $77 −$2 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 19 $128 −$128 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $200 −$72 -36%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Mar 19 $201 −$201 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-01? Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026? Mar 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 19 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 08 $103 +$86 +83%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $50 −$6 -12%
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 08 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $50 +$56 +111%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 04 $14 −$11 -79%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 04 $362 +$112 +31%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 01 $200 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $442 +$339 +77%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $257 +$15 +6%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $367 +$121 +33%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28 Jan 23 $15 −$7 -50%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 23 $78 −$18 -23%
TrumpRX launched by January 31, 2026? Jan 23 $62 −$2 -4%
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? Jan 22 $30 −$1 -5%
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition Jan 22 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026? Jan 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $261 +$2 +1%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 20 $18 $0 +2%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 20 $70 +$3 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 20 $107 +$19 +18%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $20 +$8 +40%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 17 $820 +$39 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $87 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $204 27h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $65 31h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 23¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. Portugal: BUY 22¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $185 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 2d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $91 5d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 6d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $80 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $795 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $987 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $250 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $258 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $60 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $4 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $57 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $4 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $4 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $3 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $19 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 55¢ $8 26d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $101 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $255 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,588.47 · official $2,588.47 (match) · 323 history records