Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f6…e990 crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$559 (+6%) realized +$825 · open −$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$691
7 days−$196
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$513
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -43.7% -49.0% 19% 19% -11.9%
≤30d 52 -43.7% -49.0% 19% 19% -11.9%
≤90d 52 -43.7% -49.0% 19% 19% -11.9%
all 76 -46.9% -52.0% 18% 17% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 17% -12.5%
10% -56.6% 17% -20.9%
15% -60.8% 17% -28.6%
20% -64.6% 17% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$288 vs −$69 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$825
Unrealized−$266
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage204d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 35¢ 18¢ $242 $128 −$114 (-47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $154 $2 −$152 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $356 −$340 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $131 −$124 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $116 +$626 +537%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $183 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $324 −$100 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $560 −$259 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $185 +$317 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$24 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $72 −$69 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $116 −$110 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $169 +$265 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$83 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $69 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1,556 +$1,677 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$101 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $318 −$300 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $424 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$199 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $357 +$217 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $157 +$231 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $413 −$154 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $210 +$449 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $74 +$139 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $94 −$90 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $253 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $160 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $162 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $162 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $162 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $357 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $58 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $58 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $145 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $145 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $208 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $267 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $269 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $267 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $23 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $57 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.04 · official $254.70 · 203 history records