Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:44:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f6…0981 sports 1058 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$454 (-1%) realized −$451 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%549W / 500L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day63.7pace
Fees−$737est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$3,014
14 days−$1,321
30 days−$1,446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,736
other 4% −$247
world 0% +$64
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$7
weather 0% +$3
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 51% -33.0%
≤30d 849 +2.2% -7.5% 57% 55% -12.1%
≤90d 1049 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 50% -12.7%
all 1049 -0.8% -10.3% 52% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 50% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 46% -21.1%
15% -26.7% 40% -28.7%
20% -33.9% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$451
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses549 / 500
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$737
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1049 / 1058
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1049 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 30¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$6 +163%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$13 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $124 +$66 +53%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $240 −$12 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -39%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $152 +$169 +111%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $3 +$2 +74%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $17 +$9 +56%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $13 +$7 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$33 +234%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $64 +$66 +103%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $103 +$65 +63%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -15%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +25%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 14 $67 −$67 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +149%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +106%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$13 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $44 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $32 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $31 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $4 6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 86¢ $228 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $240 7h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $52 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $52 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $35 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 84¢ $43 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $53 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 88¢ $43 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $43 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.34 · official $78.34 (match) · 3416 history records