Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A1 0xa1f5…b965 sports 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$247 (-5%) realized −$370 · open +$123
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days+$83
14 days−$271
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$1
other 32% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 44% -4.0%
≤30d 38 -2.1% -11.4% 63% 61% -13.6%
≤90d 43 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 65% -13.5%
all 51 -8.7% -17.4% 59% 57% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 57% -13.6%
10% -25.3% 47% -21.9%
15% -32.5% 29% -29.4%
20% -39.1% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$978
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$123
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions23
Markets (closed)51 / 74
History coverage143d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ $0 $207 +$207 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $100 $158 +$58 (+58%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $78 +$3 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $22 −$18 (-45%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $22 −$13 (-38%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $20 −$15 (-42%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $6 −$24 (-81%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $4 −$26 (-86%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $37 +$15 +40%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $134 −$61 -46%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$8 -37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 −$2 -6%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $251 +$57 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $252 +$69 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$47 +23%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $251 +$57 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $502 −$500 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $502 +$72 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $452 +$83 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $202 +$77 +38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $39 +$10 +26%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $30 +$5 +18%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $20 +$7 +36%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $30 +$10 +33%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $70 +$10 +15%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $70 +$6 +9%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $40 +$11 +28%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$8 +81%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $41 +$10 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $10 +$5 +50%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5) May 23 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 15 $1 $0 +44%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $1 +$1 +62%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $1 $0 +42%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Galatasaray reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leverkusen reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Juventus FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Feb 24 $1 +$1 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 10m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $37 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $4 37h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 46h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $77 46h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 46h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 67¢ $17 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $308 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 81¢ $251 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $320 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $50 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $252 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $248 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 100¢ $308 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $251 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $502 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $574 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $502 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $535 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $978.02 · official $978.39 (match) · 150 history records