Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A1 0xa1f4…4669 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$75
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$133
world 9% −$75
other 8% −$7
sports 4% −$17
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.7% -4.4% 44% 25% -12.3%
≤30d 16 +5.7% -4.4% 44% 25% -12.3%
≤90d 57 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 26% -21.7%
all 57 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 26% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 26% -21.7%
10% -29.4% 21% -29.2%
15% -36.3% 18% -36.0%
20% -42.5% 12% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)57 / 76
History coverage72d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $150 $75 −$75 (-50%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 16 $112 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$27 -32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$78 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +457%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 12 $48 −$33 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 12 $110 −$44 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 10 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 10 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 10 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 10 $2 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 10 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 10 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 10 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 10 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 10 $25 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 10 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 10 $40 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 10 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $40 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $40 −$9 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 10 $14 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 09 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$8 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $25 28m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 32m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 48m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 57m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $40 58m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $38 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.40 · official $148.41 (match) · 288 history records