Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A1 0xa1f4…4b84 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$374 (+29%) realized +$377 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%17W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$363
other 6% +$4
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +64.7% +49.0% 100% 100% +49.0%
≤30d 4 +93.5% +75.1% 100% 100% +88.2%
≤90d 15 +12.1% +1.4% 80% 60% +24.2%
all 21 +4.0% -5.9% 81% 43% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 43% +21.4%
10% -14.9% 24% +9.8%
15% -23.1% 19% -0.8%
20% -30.7% 14% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$63 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses17 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $206 $203 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $98 +$63 +65%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $179 +$220 +124%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $172 +$272 +158%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $89 +$24 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 22 $72 +$27 +38%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play May 13 $81 −$81 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? May 07 $10 +$2 +20%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 07 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 07 $31 +$4 +12%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 07 $48 +$9 +18%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $119 −$116 -98%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 09 $26 $0 +1%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? Feb 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? Jan 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $211 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $98 9d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $179 17d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 38¢ $172 24d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 78¢ $89 28d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 72¢ $72 35d
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Play BUY 100 Thieves 76¢ $81 43d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 64¢ $55 50d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $48 59d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 29¢ $119 62d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $10 93d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $15 101d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 97¢ $16 108d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 115d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? BUY No 84¢ $10 121d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $26 133d
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31? BUY Yes $0 145d
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31? BUY Yes $1 145d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 159d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 167d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in December? BUY No 100¢ $13 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.96 · official $202.96 (match) · 43 history records